September 15, 2014

09-15-14 – Morningstar Report

09-15-14 – Transaction Record

Its been a good month.  I’m was beating the S&P by a little over 200 basis points before today. Losing significant ground now. Also, keep in mind that the Morningstar report’s benchmark is the total market index, not the S&P 500.  The report also shows returns without factoring in my cash position.  My total return is easy to calculate because I started 2014 at 100K.  Its about 11.88%. Overall I think I could be doing better… but most money managers are lagging the S&P 500 so I’m doing pretty well in comparison.

Since the last post I have:

  • Bought more JC Penny
  • Sold out of YUM because I was scared (not stopped out), then bought it back once the technicals were back in line
  • I got stopped out of XLE
  • I bought more Apple
  • I sold some Yahoo after it spiked up
  • I sold the gold miner ETF… it was a dud
  • I sold the rest of XLE – gas prices are declining, and will continue to do so
  • I bought EOG to replace XLE, because the set up for EOG looks really good.  Set a tight stop
  • Bought more Walgreens
  • Today i just bought more Twitter and sold a call on it as well

All my moves are posted on Twitter when they are done, so feel free to follow me on Twitter for real time info.

Anyway, the momentum names that helped keep pace through August and September are hurting me today.  The momentum stocks (i.e. high “beta”) are being sold off to raise capital to purchase the Ali Baba IPO, which should occur this Friday.  Have you checked out Ali Baba? Its pretty cool!  Really cheap bulk items.  Stuff items that businesses buy in 1000 pieces or more (like brochures) can be had a a fraction of the price charged here in the U.S. and a steal compared to Staples! If you run a small business or non-profit, check it out.

Overall, I’m staying the course though.  Historically, the “market” continues higher by an average of 3.9% IF there has been an increase through the month of August (http://avondaleam.com/stocks-finish-year-positive-august/). The market is down about 80 basis points so far in September.  I’ll be looking for technical positions to enter on any pullback while adding to core positions.  My stops are in place.

Holdings that concern me are Bristol Myers (not breaking out like I would like, and lagging its competitors Merck & Sanofi) the “momentum stocks” getting hit too hard,

Stay the course, look for buying opportunities.  Feels like we are entering one here for the next few days to few weeks.  About another 0.71% drop from here (S&P = 1982.47) would be the 50 day moving average for the S&P…a support line to watch and that we’ll probably dip under a bit as we did in February, April, and August.  I have a bit of cash and stops will probably be hit if that happens, so I’ll fire away into the drop once the support has been broken for 4 days.