So the “V” shaped rebound happened, which I was ready for. I went pretty much all-in leaving less than 10% cash on the 14th, then got stopped out of a lot of positions on the 15th, to miss much of the rebound over the past few weeks. Timing is key, but I suppose setting good stops as well is.
Oil is getting crushed. Its going to 75 or lower. You can’t always get what you want, but sometime you might just get… what you need. Maybe the world economy needs really cheap oil right now to help it sputter along. The global economic picture is not good. However, U.S. corporate earnings have been very good so far.
I got hurt by Chipotle and Twitter. Oh my, Twitter, from best to worst just like that. I did some heavy trading after the earning collapse and gained back a portion lost on Twitter, but the position finished net negative on the 2nd 100 shares. The first 100 were purchased in the 30’s, so that was still a win.
I had a pretty full position (over 6% of assets) of Chipotle before the earnings call… so I couldn’t buy more for the bounce. Although my limit is 12%, its tough to go right back into a name that could drop another 100 points. Its bounced back to where it was pre-earnings call, but 6% of the portfolio remaining at a slight loss vs the S&P ripping up is a 6% difference for that bucket of assets.
Bristol Myers was a winner, that paid off. I’ve been going into value names such as Google, Macys, and FOX. I’ll probably go heavier into Google today. Hewlitt Packard looks nice as well. I took some DuPont as a benefit from lower gas prices play. Although I should have just gone into the airlines, but avoided that since they’d run up so much… but there they go, running up some more!
I’ve been value hunting during this rebound and have lost ground. I’m avoiding momentum names to make up ground as I believe there is a general “hunt for yield”.
So the takeaways here are: avoid beta chase here at the end (although I do think it’ll happen because so many fund managers are lagging the index), avoid energy since gas is going down, and try to find stocks with growth and yield.
I’m beginning to get locked up in some value names I have to wait to pan out, so we’ll see where the year ends at.